Finally beat my personal best by learning the dice odds in Catan

I've been playing Catan with my group for like 2 years now and I always got wrecked by my friend Steve. Last week I spent a whole evening just looking at the number tokens on the board and actually counting how often each number rolls. I know it sounds dumb but I never paid attention to which numbers were more likely to come up. So I tried a game where I only placed settlements on 6s, 8s, and 5s even if it meant no port access. I won by like 4 points and Steve just stared at his dice like they betrayed him lol. It really made me realize I was overthinking strategy and missing the basic math part. Has anyone else had a moment where a simple thing like probability totally changed your game?

3 comments

3 Comments

kai83910d ago

I get what you're saying but I don't think it's that simple. Placing on 6s and 8s is smart but ignoring port access can backfire hard if your numbers don't hit early. Played a game where I stacked 6 and 8 on sheep and wheat, then got blocked by the robber for seven straight turns while my friend with a 4 on ore traded his way to victory. So yeah knowing odds helps but you still need to think about placement flexibility, not just pure math.

david_walker9710d ago

Dodge the robber by spreading out a bit more... I learned this the hard way too. Put one settlement on 6-8-9 and another on 5-4-10 so you're not totally screwed if the dice go cold on one number. A 2:1 port on a resource you're already rolling a lot of is way better than a 3:1 generic port, so don't sleep on those either. I had a game where I put a settlement on a 6-8-2 wheat spot with a wheat port and basically controlled the market by turn 5.

parker_hall510d ago

Oh man, I feel this so hard (and also Steve's pain because I have been Steve many times). I had a similar moment but it was in Ticket to Ride where I realized you don't have to complete every single ticket to win, and I just started ignoring my longest route goals entirely. The pure math epiphany is great until you put everything on 6 and 8 and the dice decide they hate you for three straight rounds, then you're just sitting there with your fancy sheep and wheat while Steve builds a road right through your only expansion spot. It's like the game knows you've been reading strategy guides and punishes you for it.