Warning: That keyword research tool is guessing 60% of your volume numbers

I spent last month checking 50 different keywords across three tools and found a wild difference. One said 'vinyl fence panels' gets 8,000 searches a month, another said 1,200. Turns out both were guessing based on clickstream data from 2019. Google's own data is basically hidden now unless you run ads. So I tested a little - I ran a $50 Google Ads campaign on five of those keywords just to see real impressions. The actual search volume was closer to the lower estimate every single time. Has anyone else found a way to check which tool is less wrong without spending money?

3 comments

3 Comments

thomas.river6d ago

Both were guessing based on clickstream data from 2019" that part got me. My buddy was so sure his dog grooming business was getting 2,000 searches a month based on his tool. He spent weeks writing articles for that traffic. Then he actually checked his Google Search Console and found out the real number was like 80 searches a month and most were his own clicks from checking his rankings.

the_faith6d ago

Wait, most of those 80 clicks were HIM checking his own rankings?

drews556d ago

Man oh man, that dog grooming story hit way too close to home! I've literally had the same nightmare with a roofing keyword I was tracking. The tool swore up and down it was getting 4,500 searches a month but my actual Google Ads data showed like 300 real impressions after I spent $30 on a tiny test. @the_faith mentioned most of those 80 clicks were him checking his own rankings and that's EXACTLY the trap. People don't realize Google Search Console counts your own visits and refreshes in that data. The real trick I've found is to look at the "impressions" tab inside GSC instead of the clicks column - that at least shows you what Google actually served to real people. But even then you have to filter out your own IP or it's all garbage. Honestly I've just started taking ANY keyword tool number over 1,000 with a huge grain of salt unless I can verify it against a real ad campaign.